'Swine Flu' Update 12
As at 17:00 on 8th September 2009 the total number of A/H1N1 ('Swine flu') associated deaths worldwide are reported as 3,491, with the mortality rate remaining at 0.9%, significantly below the mortality rate associated with seasonal flu.
Health Protection Agency (HPA) modelling gives an estimate of 3,000 new cases in England last week, reduced from 4,500 the week before (the modelling range is 1,500 to 6,600). In the last week, the total number of deaths reported globally has increased by 19%, compared with 13% and 21% in each of the last two weeks.
There are currently 132 patients hospitalised with A/H1N1 in England (currently hospitalised at 08:00 on September 9th, source: HPA). The number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 66 (which represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu, however, does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
The highest flu like illness consultation rates are in the 15-24 year age group followed by the 25-44 year age group. The trend in the <1 year age group is decreasing more than in other age groups.
The majority of cases continue to be mild and there is no sign that the virus is changing or that it is becoming resistant to anti-virals, although the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) has documented a potential case of person-to-person transmission of a Tamiflu-resistant version. The Centre for Infections in London has found no sign that resistance is developing.
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