The number of presenting cases of A/H1N1 'swine flu' in the past week are subject to considerable uncertainty.  The latest Health Protection Agency modelling gives an estimate of 84,000 new cases (with a modelling range of 42,000 to 181,000 cases), an 8% increase on the past week.

However, information from the National Pandemic Flu service and the Royal College of General Practitioners suggests a decreasing rate of consultations and a decrease in the number of anti-viral collections.

There are currently 848 patients hospitalised in England (as of 8am on 4 November) and the number of deaths related to swine flu (but not necessarily caused by it) is 105.  There have been no significant changes in the virus.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) indicates that influenza activity remains prevalent in many countries in the Americas, is declining in most (although Japan is experiencing a marked increase) of South and South East Asia and no increase in the Southern Hemisphere.

Influenza activity continues to increase, marking an early start to winter influenza season in some countries.  In North America, the US and parts of western Canada continue to report high rates of influenza-like-illness.

In western Europe, high rates of influenza-like-illness and proportions of respiratory specimens testing positive for pandemic A/H1N1 have been observed in at least four countries: Iceland, Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Many other countries in Europe and western and central Asia are showing evidence of early influenza transmission, including in Spain, Austria, parts of northern Europe, Russia and Turkey.

The NHS A/H1N1 vaccination programme is progressing, although availability of vaccines is still restricted and the limited supplies are only gradually being delivered to NHS GP surgeries.  As previously confirmed, the vaccine is being restricted to NHS delivery and is highly unlikely to be available privately for some time (most likely Q2 2010).