Most indicators show that flu activity is starting to decrease across the UK.  The estimated cases self referring to the National Pandemic Flu Service have shown decreases in all areas, although there is a slight exception of a very minor increase in the 1-4 year age group.

Health Protection Agency (HPA) modelling gives an estimate of 22,000 new cases in England last week (with a modelling range of 11,000 to 47,000), which represents a significant decrease from the previous week.

To date (as of 2 December 2009) 4,002 viruses have been analysed by the HPA Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to Oseltamivir ("Tamiflu").  To date, twenty-four viruses have been found to carry the marker in the UK with three, through additional testing, showing evidence of resistance when viral growth is tested in the presence of Oseltamivir.  The viruses are still sensitive to Zanamivir ("Relenza").

Information on medical history in potential cases of resistance was available for 17 cases, all of whom had an underlying medical condition.  Fourteen were immuno-suppressed and three had chronic respiratory or neurological illnesses.  Further testing of the samples have shown the antiviral resistance in fourteen of the cases was treatment-induced, four were probably acquired through person-to-person transmission, and in four cases the origin of the resistant virus is still under investigation.  There have been no significant changes in the virus.

Globally, tropical regions are experiencing variable rates and intensity of influenza transmission, but low levels in tropical regions of Americas and Asia.  Most countries of the tropical regions of Central and South America continue to report declining influenza activity, with the exception of Ecuador and Venezuela.

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