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'Swine Flu' Update 10

As at 17:00 on the 18th August 2009 the total number of A/H1N1 ('Swine flu') cases confirmed worldwide is estimated at 237,129.  Associated deaths are reported as 2,144, a mortality rate of 0.9%, still significantly below the mortality rate associated with seasonal flu.

There are currently 263 patients hospitalised with A/H1N1 in the UK (Source: Health Protection Agency).  The number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 54 (which represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu, however, does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).

In the last week or so, cases reported globally have increased by 10% and the number of deaths by 24%, although in the UK there has been a further reduction in the rates of flu-like illness and related activity.

HPA modelling gives an estimate of 11,000 new cases in England last week (although the modelling range is between 6,000 to 25,000 cases).  The highest flu-like illness consultation rates are in the infant group, who are always referred to a GP by the National Pandemic Flu Service and the 1-4 year age groups.

There has been a decrease in estimated number of cases in all regions of the UK, so far with a generally low impact on health services.  The majority of cases continue to be mild.  There is no sign that the virus is changing.

Possible resistance to anti-virals is constantly monitored by the Centre for Infections, in Colindale, London.  So far, over 700 viruses have been analysed and nearly 200 specimens fully tested for resistance and all were found to be sensitive to the main anti-virals, which means resistance to the drugs is not developing.

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