Blossoms Healthcare continues to monitor the 'Swine Flu' outbreak.

As of 06:00 GMT, 15 May 2009, 34 countries have officially reported 7520 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 2446 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 60 deaths, around a third of the numbers commonly referenced in the media.  The United States has reported 4298 laboratory confirmed human cases, including three deaths, which is comparatively low mortality rate.

Very few patients with swine flu are older than 50, and the median age of reported cases is 17 (source: CDC) and, although firm conclusions cannot be reached at present, any pre-existing immunity to the virus is likely to be greater in older populations groups, who may have developed a degree 'herd' immunity from previous exposure to flu viruses.

As you are probably aware (with the exception of the outbreak in Mexico, which is still not fully understood) the H1N1 virus tends to cause very mild illness in otherwise healthy people.  Outside Mexico, nearly all cases of illness and all deaths have been detected in people with underlying chronic conditions.

Scientists are concerned about potential mutation as the virus spreads to the Southern Hemisphere (the normal flu season begins this month in the Southern Hemisphere) and encounters currently circulating human viruses.  The emergence of a more virulent virus during the course of a pandemic cannot be ruled out.

Because of the risk that the virus may mutate and become the dominant flu strain, the World Health Organisation will closely monitor the Southern Hemisphere during the normal flu season and data from the region may help scientists develop a vaccine against the virus.

The UK and most countries are hastening production of annual flu shots based on strains identified before the H1N1 outbreak, with batches of seed virus currently being developed by Sanofi-Aventis and GlaxoSmithKline.  Whether this years flu vaccination will provide protection from A(H1N1) cannot currently be confirmed.

If your business is considering the purchase of anti-virals to support pandemic prepardness and business continuity plans, it is worth considering that although Roche are increasing production, all stocks are being diverted to replenish national stockpiles.  Blossoms strongly advises clients against purchasing anti-virals from unauthorised sources.

In the event of a more severe pandemic, the demands on healthcare providers to facilitate any dispensing programmes should be considered closely in continuity plans, particularly if the WHO Phases increase rapidly, as in the recent outbreak.  It's also of note that the UK's National Framework for a pandemic response is robust and tested.

It's also reasonable to expect that your business may experience a greater degree of short-term absence than in previous years once the UK's flu season begins again in September.  The best steps to mitigate the impact of short-term absence from flu are focused on education and prevention.

The key messages remain; ensure good personal hygiene, avoid obviously sick people and seek medical support (by phone if possible) should symptoms persist.  The Department of Health has good free resources available to support health awareness and education campaigns, as well as a good frequently asked questions website.

Blossoms will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates and advice to clients when appropriate, however, please do feel free to contact our team at any time if there's anything we can do to help.